By: Adam Hamilton, CPA, Zeal Research - 11 August, 2017
Gold-mining profits are heavily dependent on prevailing gold prices. And with this industry’s costs way under gold’s current levels, the gold miners are already earning hefty profits today. Sooner or later their stock prices must reflect fundamental reality. That mean-reversion process is already underway, with gold stocks’ early-autumn-rally gains increasingly outpacing gold’s. Their upside leverage should only accelerate. Full Story
So, as I noted last week, my preference is for the market to continue these machinations over the next few weeks to provide us another break out set up. Under this scenario, the break out may not occur until the end of August. Full Story
– Gold is up 2.3% this week and silver has surged nearly 5.3% as stocks sell off on geopolitical risk – Billionaire fund managers and commodities experts increasingly positive on gold – Risks are rising, and everybody should put 5% to 10% of their assets in gold – Dalio – Dalio’s Bridgewater, world’s largest hedge fund, warned clients that geopolitical risks are rising – ‘Gold is about break out on the upside strongly’ – commodities expert Gartman – Gartman believes right now investors should have 10% to 15% allocation to gold Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 11 August, 2017
With the gold price continuing to rise we are torn between New York’s exuberant paper gold trading and Shanghai’s solid gains on the back of physical trading. Today and next week become important days for the gold price. It is also the time when North Korea said they would fire a missile towards Guam! Full Story
Trump’s rhetoric on nuclear attack on North Korea is a case of barking dogs seldom bite. A nuclear attack on North Korea will indirectly affect people of South Korea as well as people of China. The Japanese Fukushima nuclear disaster is still yet to be fully controlled despite many years. All news related to Fukushima is highly censored. There is a difference between armed attack to dethrone the North Korean monarchy and a nuclear attack. Full Story
Gold is heading towards a daily cycle top near $1300. Oil is probably going to test the $60-62 range in the weeks ahead. The stock market is trying to complete a daily cycle low before it begins the next up leg higher to new highs. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 10 August, 2017
Members of the FOMC are talking to the media in very dovish manners. The evidence that inflation is falling has clearly disturbed them. After the 2015, 2016 steady building of inflation, it is falling back again. This implies that we will not see another rate hike in 2017. They still feel that a start to the Fed’s Balance Sheet tightening will be made. After all, it will be slight and the Fed believes it will have barely any impact on markets. While academically that may be true, psychologically it may be a mistake. The recovery remains vulnerable and fragile. Any hint of tightening may well cause a market reaction when they broach that subject with action. Full Story
One needs to be careful trading at current prices in gold as it has not been able to break past $1300 in the past. This time though any armed attack on North Korea ( if any) can result in gold easily breaking $1300 and nearing towards $1500. But at the moment one needs to be very careful despite all the bullish supportive political factors. US inflation numbers is the key. Full Story
Unfortunately, the pattern on the EUR/USD is not as supportive of the same strength that the DXY itself is displaying. So, while the pattern of the DXY suggests higher levels prior to making a local top, the pattern on the EUR/USD is more supportive that this move up on the DXY may be a bit more short-lived and still has some more work to do to the downside prior to making a more significant bottom. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 9 August, 2017
We were around when the Cuba Missile Crisis brought the world to the brink of World War 3. Today this is one country, North Korea, against the U.S. to begin with. But in 1952 when the Korean War raged it became China plus North Korea that took on the Allies. We see a potential restart to the war again [which never officially ended] and a major deterioration of U.S. - China relations if it does. China will not accept the elimination of North Korea! Full Story
– Gold climbs amid rising risk on US and North Korea – Trump threatened North Korea with ‘fire and fury like the world has never seen’ – North Korea says prepared to strike the US territory of Guam – North Korea said US exercise ‘proves that the U.S. imperialists are nuclear war maniacs’ – Heated rhetoric likely to support gold for rest of the week – Russia and China poised to take advantage – Situation adds to uncertainty in an already uncertain world Full Story
I have now been writing for several weeks now that I was looking for an ideal shorter-term target zone of the 21,971 -22,429 zone on the Dow Jones Industrial Average prior to seeing a top in the index. Last week the Dow moved over 22,000 for the first time and is now trading right in the middle of that target zone. Additionally, the path up to this zone since the May 17th low has been exceptionally smooth having seen a tight grind to these higher levels. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 8 August, 2017
The dollar gold price has turned up again in line with the weaker dollar. The gold price is not steady in any currency, so cannot be accurately translated into any currency as though it solely reflected currency values, yet. For instance, in the euro it dropped in the past week alongside its fall in the dollar and we expect it to rise in the euro and the dollar when it rises, which it has started to do now. In the Yuan its move in the last week has been 2% against the currency’s move of 0.003%. We see this Chinese price of gold being where the physical demand and supply is being priced. Full Story
American companies are a loss in Russia. All the global trade laws have been flouted while imposing trade sanctions on Russia and other nations. Thankfully Russia also has a land border with China. China believes that USA should not interfere in South China Sea. Russia and China have a common enemy in the form of NATO. The barter trade between Russia and China will alienate American trade sanctions on Russia. The fall out is that both Russia and China have been continuously increasing their gold reserves and also diversifying their reserves. Full Story
Little has changed in the technical picture for gold. The move from $1,204 unfolded in five waves to the upside suggesting that this was an impulse move. Gold has broken out above the key MAs of 50, 100, and 200. We suspect this is a corrective to the up move and it appears to be forming what we would call a bull flag or pennant. A complex correction we believe ended with the e wave at $1,204. At that point the commercial COT was clearly covering their shorts and the bullish consensus was quite low. Meanwhile, the large speculators (hedge funds, managed futures, etc.) were cutting their long positions and increasing their short positions—typical behaviour to help form a low. The clear break above $1,260 signaled to us odds now favoured a return to $1,300 and probable new highs. Support looks solid down to $1,240 and $1,250. Our expectation here is that gold will soon break above $1,300 and head for $1,400 and even $1,500 this year. The backdrop is the growing political scandal in Washington that promises to get uglier. As well, the debt ceiling debate is fast approaching and our expectation there is like all other legislation in the Trump administration it will hit the shoals. They have to raise the debt ceiling but there are many Republicans vehemently opposed to it. The risk is the fight shuts down government (it has happened before) and the US technically defaults. That is an event that would shake markets globally. But the risk is real. Gold would be a major beneficiary. Full Story
This is the second year in a row that policy changes in India may have strained gold sales, reports Bloomberg. Consumption is seen between 650 and 750 metric tons this year, compared to the annual average of around 850 tons in the previous half decade. The Indian government’s push to boost financial transparency cut consumption this year as they enacted a new consumer tax system, the article continues. Full Story
It’s hard to feel the pain when one looks at a chart, but I can assure you that for me there was some serious pain when SLV topped out without the PM stocks hardly participating with even more pain after gold topped and the PM stocks hardly moving higher. Is there a lesson to be learned from the 2011 experience? As always we’ll know in the fullness of time. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 7 August, 2017
In the euro there was only a small drop in the gold price. So where is the dollar going from now on? We don’t see the gold price falling in other currencies and indeed we are not convinced by the jobs report spurring wage inflation soon. The jobs being created are easily low, but on top of that the impact of technology on quality jobs is heavy. The failure of full employment to spur wages is a structural change that will not reverse. Full Story
Till Wednesday it will be a technical trade for metals and energies as there are no big economic data from USA. Thereafter the CPI and PPI numbers if they rise at a fast pace can alter the interest rate hike expectations. Political news and political developments can cause a hara-kiri in metals as well as currency markets. The big answer which investors will be looking for is “has the US dollar bottomed out”. Full Story
The XIV remains cracked but still not yet broken. While it may not take much to push the XIV off of the edge there are still several support levels not far below. While I am not nibbling on trades given this initial crack I still remain patient until we see those support levels break. Full Story
The content on this site is protected
by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com
and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any
information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com.
This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other
features found on the site. Please contact
us for any further information.
Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer
The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy
or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics,
analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction
and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained
on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC,
is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be
liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon
the information provided herein.
