The bottom line is this gold bull now has the highest major-upside-breakout potential of its entire lifespan. This latest gold upleg fueled by gold-futures buying hasn’t matured yet, as speculators’ long positioning remains quite low. For the first time in this bull, gold is already consolidating high around $1300 before most of the likely gold-futures long buying has run its course. That makes an assault on $1350 very likely.
If gold can break decisively above that multi-year resistance and start forging new bull-market highs, its psychology will greatly improve. Investors will take notice and start buying again, driving gold higher and fueling mounting bullishness. The gold miners’ stocks will be the biggest beneficiaries of new bull-market gold highs. Their stocks soared the last time investors were excited about this gold bull, rapidly multiplying wealth. Full Story
Gold and silver are historically undervalued relative to the stock and bond markets. The junior mining stocks overall are at their most undervalued relative to the price of gold since 2001. Gold’s relative performance during the quarter, when the stock market had its best quarterly performance in many decades, is evidence of the underlying strength building in the precious metals sector. Full Story
Alas, the worst selloff we’ve seen in — well, it’s actually been only two weeks — socked the June contract with an $18 loss. In the accompanying chart, some might discern a head-and-shoulders kinda thing going on in the ups and downs of 2019. If you're believer in these patterns — and I am not, since they are everywhere one wants to see them — they imply that a downdraft is coming that could take the futures down to as low as 1220. If it’s any consolation, that would not be much of a victory for bears (aka the Bad Guys), since it would amount to a decline of less than 6%. For the time being, however, I’ll suggest sticking with the 1262.70 target that has obtained for the last two weeks. It is my minimum downside objective and worth bottom-fishing. There's a chance bulls could find some gumption at 1279.40, the pattern’s ‘secondary Hidden Pivot support. Full Story
By: Chris Waltzek, GoldSeek Radio - 11 April, 2019
The dialogue includes an overview of the Presidential Cycle and US stock market performance. Stock indexes could climb to record highs if history acts as a guide amid fresh foreign capital inflows. - Global investors seek out the key shares with big media exposure, such as the Dow 30 components. - Martin Armstrong expects precious metals and equities based cryptocurrencies to outperform their peers. - Several key gold / silver stocks have shown solid signs of performance amid the multi-month US equities rally. Full Story
Offsetting all of these negatives, at least in the giddy brains of permabulls, is this: The Fed has no plans to tighten and could conceivably even ease. Place your bets! But before you do, consider that the Dreamlifter is about to take on the added weight of a growing scandal tied to two 737 Max 8 crashes in the last five months that killed 346 people. The stock lost nearly 20% of its value in the weeks that followed the second crash, on March 10. Subsequently, on sketchy news reports that both crashes were caused by a software glitch that presumably could be easily fixed, Boeing shares rallied 10%, recovering nearly half of what they’d lost. Full Story
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants - 11 April, 2019
Brexit deal has been postponed till 31st October with a review in June. Brexit news will not affect pound for two months. Indonesia and India election trend will be closely watched over the next two months. Australian elections on 18th May will have a zero effect on global currency markets. USA-China have agreed to open enforcement offices on each side for the trade deal. I believe that the USA-China war is not over. Full Story
As much as Democrats love wagging their fingers at all of us racists, homophobes and climate-changers, their first love, borne of longstanding political tradition, is kicking fallen bankers in the nuts. It doesn’t hurt that in the eyes of the Democrats and America’s flourishing grievance industry, many of the perps happen to be privileged white men. Wells Fargo’s bankers in particular have been bludgeoned worse than a pinata at a Cinco de Mayo party, and last summer they paid $575 million to end investigations by 50 states and the District of Columbia. Full Story
In part two of the Quarterly Report I’m going to update some long term charts for some of the world stock markets. As you will see many have formed massive ten plus year consolidation patterns similar of what we observed in the first installment of the Quarterly Report which are similar in duration to many of the US stock markets. It’s these big multi year consolidation patterns that are strongly suggesting to us that the world as we know it is not coming to an end as so many analysis would like us to believe. For whatever reasons bear market news tends to grab investors attention much more so than bullish news. It has to work that way because if everyone was bullish, that comes at the end of a bull market, there would be no one left to buy. I’ve often said that, “investing in the markets is psychological warfare more than anything else.” Full Story
Considering the dour outlook for Q1 earnings, the stock market’s exuberant run-up over the last month feels like Tennyson’s Charge of the Light Brigade: “Into the valley of Death rode the 600…’ And yet, we know from watching the shares of Boeing, Apple (see chart inset) and Facebook go vertical into a steady stream of negative news concerning each that Wall Street’s ‘600’ really don’t give a damn about the news, or even about ‘fundamentals’. Earnings are expected to come in around 4.5% lower than a year earlier, and this will be the first quarter in three years with negative earnings growth. Full Story
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants - 9 April, 2019
I am bullish on gold and silver today. Short covering and new long positions will be built if gold and silver rise today. FOMC minutes is something which traders are waiting. I do not expect any surprises in FOMC minutes.
Crude oil rise will be cause of concern. Venezuela and Libya are critical to global crude oil production. Full Story
The Bitcoin Bubble - the exponential rise of Bitcoin / Cryptos in 2017, where Bitcoin ascended from $1,000 to $20,000 in only 12 months, a 20x advance was a bubble: the host / guest draw parallels with the epic Nikkei market zenith. However, the host finds similarities with the Dot.com bubble where many companies survived and thrived, such as Amazon, Google and eBay.
Governments can shutdown cryptos easily: Mr. Pento notes the small number of BTC holders and core developing team as potential challenges. The host counters, citing the decentralized nature of many coins and peer-to-peer structure of Bitcoin In addition, Bitcoin remains a national currency of Japan, extremely techno-friendly country.
Crytocurrencies are not money or currencies: Mr. Pento says cryptos are not rare and indestructible, the host counters with the nearly indecipherable nature and immutable aspects as well as the distributed digital ledger - cryptos maintain value, albeit highly volatile, ideal peer-to-peer digital currencies.
Gold is real money but not silver: Gold is the king of currencies, silver is the prince and cryptos share many similar qualities. Full Story
Finally, on its long-term 10-year chart we can see that gold is still on track to break out from its giant Saucer base before much longer, which will be achieved by its breaking clear above the strong resistance at the top of it, approaching and at the $1400 level, and here we should note that gold has already broken out against the Australian dollar, which partly explains some big gains in Australian gold stocks, and looks set to break out soon against the Swiss Franc. There are several other observations to make regarding where gold is at within this important Saucer pattern against the US dollar. The first is that a base pattern of this magnitude, which has been forming for 6 years now, and is relatively symmetrical, is unlikely to lead to a failure or breakdown. The second is that the rising Saucer boundary is now coming into play and should force an upside by the end of the year at the latest – more likely is that gold breaks out during its seasonally strong months of August and September. The third point is that when it does break out it will be A MAJOR TECHNICAL EVENT THAT WILL USHER IN A BULLMARKET THAT WILL DWARF ANY EARLIER ONE which is hardly surprising as it will be against the background of hyperinflation caused by unrestrained QE. Full Story
If one could see the COT Report as of Friday's close, I suspect that there would be a bit more improvement in the commercial net short position, as 'da boyz' carved out two new intraday lows since the Tuesday afternoon cut-off.
In gold, the commercial net short position fell by a hefty 33,204 contracts, or 3.32 million troy ounces of paper gold. Ted was hoping for 60,000 contracts. But his estimate in gold, like for silver, was thrown off by spread trade liquidation as the April delivery month approached.
They arrived at that number by selling 21,687 long contracts, but they also reduced their short position by a chunky 54,891 contracts -- and it's the difference between those two numbers that represents their change for the reporting week.
Under the hood in the Disaggregated COT Report, it was all Managed Money traders -- and almost to the contract. They reduced their long position by 24,557 contracts, plus they added 8,812 short contracts -- and it's the sum of those two numbers...33,369 contracts...that represents their change for the reporting week. Full Story
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants - 8 April, 2019
Trump wants interest rate cuts this year. His strategy is simple: Weaken the US dollar à A weaker US dollar will help US exports and also reduce import à Higher employment will be there if interest rate cuts are there and the US dollar also weakens. The ultimate goal of all these moves is to get a re-nomination next year and also win next year presidential elections. The fallout of a weaker US dollar will be higher crude oil prices, higher gold prices, strong Asian currencies against the US dollar amongst another potential fall out of a sharp US dollar depreciation. Full Story
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