By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 12 May, 2006
What an amazing week in the commodities markets! The combination of the first $700+ gold closes in over a quarter century, all-time-record platinum highs above $1250, copper soaring over $3.75, and renewed oil strength led to a very welcome surge in mainstream interest in this powerful secular commodities bull. While the fearless contrarians have already earned fortunes since this bull stealthily started galloping higher in 2001, all the increasing commodities exposure in the mainstream financial media is bringing legions of new traders to the table. Full Story
There are basically two views. The bears argue, quite correctly, that commodity run-ups are always self correcting: consumption drops just as production increases and prices retreat. They also point out, correctly, that the longest bear market ever is actually in commodity prices, which have been dropping, in real terms, since the beginning of recorded history. The bulls, including myself, argue that, while these things are true, both fundamental and monetary factors militate for perhaps a decade of higher prices until the fundamental trend reasserts itself. In other words, I think we’re in a period that’s going to run against the norm. Full Story
Following yesterday’s retail sales report a Bloomberg headline read, ‘S&P 500 Futures Gain on Retail Sales’. The speculation at the time (8:31 AM) was that a weaker than expected retail sales report was “rekindling optimism the Federal Reserve may soon end its string of interest-rate increases.” Not surprisingly, as US stocks opened lower Fed ‘pause’ optimism vanished, and by the closing bell slumping dollar/booming commodity price fears had been found. Full Story
Does gasoline at 10 cents a gallon and falling sound impossible in today’s world? Well, if you think it’s impossible, you’re wrong. Because that’s where gasoline actually is, and it looks like it’s going even lower. Of course, it’s not 10 cents a gallon in today’s paper money. But it is 10 cents a gallon in the Constitutional money of the United States, which is gold coin and bullion. Full Story
By: Nick Barisheff, Bullion Marketing Services Inc. - 12 May, 2006
The general public, the media and most financial observers were largely unaware of the momentous event that took place on August 15, 1971. However, the implications of that event have had an enormous impact on global financial conditions ever since. On that date, US President Richard Nixon “closed the gold window”. Full Story
No, not in a military sense, but financial. They are many, and the United States is in firm possession of most of them. We have the corner on this market, a monopoly sort of. Japan has its own Asian corner on this market, only because they have been US lackeys for so long. Space is limited to list them all, but the major weapons which have succeeded in gutting the USEconomy can certainly be cited. Let this article serve as a collage of images, each powerful in its own way. The story lines are brief, since the pictures each tell a thousand words. Full Story
A new contract high was made on the rally. Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The gap upmove on the day session chart is a bullish indicator for trend. There could be more upside follow through since the market closed above the 2nd swing resistance. The next upside objective is 738.4. Full Story
Gold moved above $705 in after hours access trade yesterday and traded in a range of about $705 to $712 in Asia and London. It then sprinted up over $725 in early New York trade, fell back near $715, returned to $725, and then fell off slightly into the close, but it still ended with a 2.33% gain at a new 25 year high. Silver traded mostly slightly higher in Asia and London before it rocketed above $15 in early New York trade and then seesawed with gold into the close, ending with a 4.33% gain at a new 25 year high of its own. However, at the time of writing both metals are off about 1% from their close. Full Story
Gold was little affected by the plunge in silver in mid-April, and after a period of consolidation it has continued to advance in a steady and steep uptrend, and it is no coincidence that the dollar has plunged during the same period. Full Story
Silver is at a critical juncture having succeeded in recouping all of the losses incurred as a result of the violent mid-April plunge, as it is now a whisker below the important resistance at this high. It remains very overbought on an intermediate basis, so the question is whether it will now consolidate/correct, or break higher again. Full Story
Whew! I think this best describes the wonderful ride I’ve been on ever since returning to the bullish side of metals and mining in the spring of 2003. I believe it’s very fair to say I was very bullish throughout the ride, except for stepping aside for the few short corrections and leaving the bullish camp on copper far too soon. With gold hovering around $400, I kept stating that $500 was only a question of when, not if. Around $500, I said the same for $600. When $600 was breached, I stated gold should test key resistance between $650 - $700. Hello $700!!! Now What? Full Story
Oil and gas have always been highly politicized commodities, but never more so than today. With the leading players in the final stages of the global economic integration gearing up for the next world war, oil is probably the single most "militarized" of commodities and you have something with devastating economic/military/political potential. Full Story
Some old timers may remember the T-Bond contract as one of the deepest and most liquid securities in the world. But that was before U.S. Treasury debt became mere side-action for what has grown into a $210 trillion global derivatives market. For comparison, consider that in 2005 the world produced real goods and services valued at just 25 percent of that amount, or $54 trillion. Clearly, making money the old-fashioned way has gone out of style. Full Story
The market rallied to a new contract high. Studies are showing positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The next upside objective is 713.7. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 710.9 and 713.7, while 1st support hits today at 700.5 and below there at 692.8. Full Story
Gold remained near unchanged in early Asian trade and rose near $705 by early London trade, but it then fell into the New York open and dropped to under $695 by midmorning New York trade. Those losses were brief, however, as gold then rose throughout the rest of trade and ended near its highs of the session at a new 25 year high. Silver followed a very similar pattern, but it was not able to rebound as much as gold and it ended over 1% lower on the day. At the time of writing, both metals are trading nicely higher in after hours trade in reaction to the fed’s statement. Full Story
It looks like we are getting close to a low risk buy point in silver. The latest COMEX Commitment of Traders data related to the short position of the Commercial Traders (commercials) shows that the commercials have closed out a large portion of their short position. This is the first time, however, that they have had to close out at a loss. The price of silver did not correct to the low levels at which they originally went short. Full Story
By: Roland Watson, New Era Investor - 10 May, 2006
We are getting excited about the things that lie ahead of us. Before us is a rising slope heading off to a barely perceptible mountain top that is shrouded in the mist of a new dawn. It rises imposingly above us yet its height remains uncertain due to our inexperience and uncertain memories of a prior peak. Many speak of that last ascent, but few had personally ascended it, save a few veteran mountaineers. Full Story
Traders and investors who have been using my “hula numbers” to leverage gold’s resurgence one predictable stride at a time, please take note: The June Comex contract is stealing up on an important rally target that merits our return to caution, however briefly. The precise number is 709.50, a hidden pivot broached here earlier that has the potential to cap the bull cycle begun two months ago from around $540. There is an alternative hidden pivot at 710.50, so it is logical to expect a shortable top at one number or the other, or perhaps somewhere in-between. Full Story
For most investors and traders, the funds are an excellent way to have exposure to the gold sector while keeping risk at minimum. It also offers diversification, and simple management. Despite the spectacular rise of both the metals and mining stocks in the past four years, this is just the beginning and not the end. As I have said before, I would be concerned when we have a 24 hour gold channel on TV……Get on board and stay on board! Full Story
The market rallied to a new contract high. Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. If yesterday's gap higher on the day session chart holds, additional buying could develop this session. Full Story
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants - 10 May, 2006
Gold firm as the rise over $700.00 attracts laggards to invest in it. Silver follows gold. Indian gold exchange traded fund (ETF) may soon be launched. Full Story
Gold gained a few dollars in Asia before it fell back off near unchanged by the open in London. It then climbed back above $680 in London and came in to New York about $5 higher. It was off to the races from there, as gold quickly surged to above $695, briefly fell back off about $5, and then gained into the close to end at its high of the at a new 25 year high. Silver followed a very similar pattern and ended near its highs of the session with an over 5% gain just 5 cents from a new 25 year closing high. Full Story
Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The near-term upside objective is at 688.3. The market is becoming somewhat overbought now that the RSI is over 70. The next area of resistance is around 684.6 and 688.3, while 1st support hits today at 675.2 and below there at 669.4. Full Story
Gold traded a couple dollars on either side of unchanged in Asia before it fell off in London trade and dropped near $670 in morning New York trade, but it then rallied back near $680 by afternoon trade and remained at about that level into the close to end 0.73% lower and fall from 25 year highs. Silver rose to over $14 in Asia before it also fell off in London and dropped to under $13.50 in morning New York trade, but a rally into the close cuts its losses and silver closed just 0.86% lower. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 8 May, 2006
The international trading power of the States will dominate just how far the dollar will fall. Of course if the States manages to show it is in the process of balancing the Balance of Payments beforehand [which may not mean the complete elimination of the Trade deficit] the demand for dollars will probably overcome the supply. But inevitably that action will mean a huge recession for the States, which could prove an internal nightmare and cause a global recession of its own. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 8 May, 2006
This is very bullish for silver, because it explains why silver's rise took longer than we thought (Warren was selling), and it also means that there is much less silver above ground than we thought. Buffett's hoard of 130 million ounces no longer exists! Clearly, Warren made a mistake, and he seems to admit it when he says that he sold silver too soon. I always suspected that Warren did not understand gold or silver too well. Full Story
Unfortunately the situation is not absolutely clear and there are a couple of possibilities. The forecast called for a 4%-6% correction once wave 3 of (iii) of V was complete. The confusion arises because in the Comex gold futures market there was a 5.2% correction from $644.4 to $610.9 within a day, a correction that does not appear in the graph of the London PM fixings. This was exactly the magnitude of correction that was anticipated and arrived as expected, after $630 had been exceeded. Full Story
By: Joe Ferrazzano, Trade The Cycles - 8 May, 2006
Barrick's (ABX) substantial strength following a good earnings report and aggressive Fed lending held things together last week, though NEM's monthly cycle peaked on 5-1, HUI's probably peaked on 5-3, and the XAU's may have peaked on 5-5. Thursday 5-4's Fed lending was a massive $19.25 Billion in Repos. A multi week Elliot Wave ABC correction probably looms. Full Story
The market rallied to a new contract high. Rising stochastics at overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. With the close over the 1st swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately positive position. The next upside objective is 692.6. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 689.1 and 692.6, while 1st support hits today at 679.5 and below there at 673.3. Full Story
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants - 8 May, 2006
A few reasons why the current rally in gold, silver and other precious metals as well as base metals are here to stay despite calls for a correction. Full Story
Gold rose near $680 in after hours trade late yesterday, fell back near $675 in Asia, and rose up near $685 in early London trade before it fell back near $675 at the New York open. Gold then quickly shot back above $680 before it again fell back near $675, but it then rallied into the close and ended near its highs of the day with a 1.16% gain at a new 25 year high. Silver rose above $14 in late Asian/early London trade before it fell near $13.70 in midmorning New York trade, but it also rallied into the close and ended with a 0.58% gain to end just 64 cents from new 25 year closing highs. Full Story
With the current 8-year cycle getting closer to its bottom later this summer, it’s only natural to ask if the financial markets will experience a similar reversal and period of extreme weakness such as the case was in 1998 when the previous 8-year cycle bottomed. The 8-year cycle decline of ‘98 brought disastrous consequences to some emerging economies and nearly brought down the global financial system with it. So it behooves us to ask whether 2006 might witness a similar global financial and/or economic crisis. Full Story
Like living organisms and processes in nature, stockmarkets and individual companies and their stocks go through processes of birth, growth, maturity, decline and death or rebirth. This becomes readily apparent when one looks at the long-term charts of stockmarkets and the long-term charts of the stocks of many individual companies. A knowledge of these cycles is of immense value in stock trading and investing, for if you know what time it is on the “market clock”, either for entire markets or individual stocks, or both, you have a pretty good idea and overview of the big picture and are much less likely to be taken in or thrown by moves which run counter to the larger underlying trend. Full Story
It's been 4 weeks since I wrote my last article Big moves ahead in silver. Silver was trading then around $12. After that we have seen a climb up to almost $15, a plunge of more than $3 in less than 24hrs and a recovery up to levels above $14. These have been quite big moves IMO, but we are bound to see much bigger. Full Story
You have to wonder whether US President George Bush and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are both long gold and oil in their brokerage accounts. We can not of course say that we have done a correlation analysis between the rising rhetoric between the two countries and the price increase of gold and oil. We would be hard pressed to state when the most recent war of words began but the evidence of positive correlation looks pretty good when you consider that over the past year as the shouting heated up gold is up roughly $235 or 55% and oil is up about $25 also around 50%. Full Story
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