Gold rose a couple of dollars in Asia, added another $6 in London, traded about $8 to $12 higher in morning New York trade, added to its gains in afternoon trade, and closed near its high of the day with a gain of 2.24%. Silver gained a few cents in Asia, added another 10 cents in London, steadily rose throughout trade in New York, and ended near its highs with a gain of 2.66%. Full Story
Gold prices jumped overnight, gapping above the top of this week’s trading range, at $585. Price action remained positive throughout the day, even closing above the 18 day moving average at $589. A gap in the daily December Gold chart remains between $602 and $595 and provides an upside objective Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 13 October, 2006
With the Dow 30 continuing to carve its new series of all-time record highs, the excitement it is creating is sucking in capital like a black hole. Nothing draws in new investors faster than heavily-hyped rising prices. But all of this redirected Dow capital has to come from somewhere, and one of these places is commodities. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster – Global Watch - 13 October, 2006
In the first part of this piece, we described how the shift in wealth from West to East is long-term and structural and unlikely to be reversed. At some point in time this shift will lead to economic and political rifts that will heighten global tensions and prompt financial and possibly military responses. The shifting of economic power to the east is well along and unlikely to stop. Full Story
The mega-storm develops slowly. Small regional home builder Kara Homes of New Jersey has filed for bankruptcy. Depositors have reason to worry. Other builders like Hovnanian, which serves the same northeastern area, has begun to ax executive and field jobs. Construction jobs had primed the labor pump for four years, and now will provide drag. No evidence yet, so it lies just over the horizon. Chain reaction linkage in home sales grows as a problem. Sellers must dispose of their current homes in order to free funds, but are having trouble doing so. New home builders do not return deposits in such cases, ouch! Full Story
On the 5-year gold chart we can see that it remains oversold as shown by the oscillators at the top and bottom of the chart, and it is on important support that should generate a rally. A 300-day moving average has been appended to this chart instead of the usual 200-day, for as we can see, gold has found support in the vicinity of this average throughout its 5-year bull market, and proceeded to advance again. Full Story
Like gold, silver is expected to stage a tradable rally soon from about the current level, which, barring an attack on Iran, is likely to get up to about $12.50 before it rolls over again. The parallel stop loss point to that for gold would be failure of the support at $9.50, but as this would result in an unacceptably large loss for anyone buying around the current level, it would make more sense to cut losses in the event that it breaks below the recent low at $10.50, despite their being some risk of being whipsawed out. Full Story
Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken out. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. The daily closing price reversal up is a positive indicator that could support higher prices. Market positioning is positive with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The next downside objective is now at 571.1. The next area of resistance is around 584.5 and 588.0, while 1st support hits today at 576.1 and below there at 571.1. Full Story
Gold December future is trading in $573.50-$586.50 range while silver December future is trading in $1105-$1155 range and a break out is in the offing soon. Full Story
Gold rose over $576 in late Asian trade before it fell off in London and dropped to as low as $570.30 in midmorning New York trade, but it then rallied into the close and ended near its highs with a gain of 0.61%. Silver dropped to as lows as $11.07 before it also rallied into the close and ended with a gain of 0.36%. Full Story
The US trade balance widened to record levels in the last month. Crude Oil prices rejected new lows. The dollar was down. A trifecta of support for gold this morning yet prices remained firmly entrenched in this week’s trading range. Direction is still suspicious but a close above $585 might just spur some technical buying. A gap in the daily December Gold chart remains between $602 and $595 and provides an upside objective Full Story
If there is one word to describe the trading climate of the past few days it would have to be "no conviction." There’s an atmosphere of lethargy in the market right now, including for gold stocks, that is hard not to notice. One look at any number of the daily charts or tick charts of the leading gold/silver mining equities will bear this out. Take a look at the HUI tick chart below to see what I mean. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 12 October, 2006
The outlook for Gold is a pressing concern in the Rick’s Picks chat room on most days. Indeed, if bullion prices move merely a few dollars either way, I’m likely to be asked whether my outlook has changed significantly. Take yesterday, for instance. The December Comex contract was in the throes of a $10 rally, seemingly bucking my prediction in the day’s commentary that gold would continue to move more or less in tandem with oil. But with oil down and gold up around mid-morning, did this mean the two had un-coupled? In a word, no. Full Story
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next downside objective is 570.9. The next area of resistance is around 580.1 and 585.4, while 1st support hits today at 572.9 and below there at 570.9. Full Story
Zinc jumped the most among the metals as three month London metals exchange (LME) touched a high of $3800. Copper and other base metals also rose on higher demand. The rise in base metals also resulted in silver shooting up. Full Story
Gold traded in a range of about $570 to $574 in Asia and London, came into New York near unchanged above $572, and then rose above $578 by late morning, but it then fell back off in afternoon trade and ended just slightly higher on the day. Silver traded mostly slightly lower in Asia and London and rose to over $11.40 in late morning New York trade before it also fell off in afternoon trade, but it still closed with a gain of 0.99%. Full Story
Gold prices enter the sixth month of consolidation after peaking back in May. The September and October time frame seasonally brings renewed physical demand into the market but prices sit about $75 off the August highs. After a multi-year bull market, the past few months can be viewed as consolidation of these gains. There is no clear direction and enthusiasm wanes as the market is caught juggling opposing fundamentals. Full Story
If enough people are convinced that we have a major bottom, let’s wait for them to throw their money at the market first. If indeed they vote with their pocket books and not just their hands, the market can be reversed and a new uptrend will be established. That is when we will join them. Until then, we are happy with our hard earned profits this year, and if nothing happen between now and Christmas, I’ll be content to call it a year, another good year. Full Story
Do you see, what I see? Sounds like a great song we all remember, but for me it ‘could be’ the first signs of a bottoming process in the precious metals and the HUI index and a topping of the U.S. Dollar Index.
Many analysts are writing articles these days providing their favorite charts and analysis and while our gut feeling is that we have bottomed we may not be out of the woods just yet, no one knows for sure. Full Story
By: Israel Friedman & Theodore Butler - 11 October, 2006
Many things are written about gold and silver, but at this time I would like to take a practical view. What looks more profitable – investing in gold or silver? I am more a silver bug than a gold bug, and you may think that I am prejudiced. But that aside, I think you will find out why I believe that silver will be a more profitable investment than gold. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 11 October, 2006
As mentioned here earlier, a 589.60 print is all it would take to jump start gold. So far, though, the December contract has acted like that’s a leap to the moon. Far from it, in fact. The futures actually got as high as 585.50 early Tuesday morning, close enough to our bull trigger price that just a little nudge from the oil patch probably would have done the trick. Alas, oil weakened in the wee hours, putting the kibosh on any attempt gold bulls might have made to mount even a modest rally. Full Story
Declining momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The swing indicator gave a moderately negative reading with the close below the 1st support number. The next downside objective is now at 568.8. The next area of resistance is around 580.1 and 584.3, while 1st support hits today at 572.3 and below there at 568.8. Full Story
The US dollar has hit a 10 month high against the yen. A weaker yen should result in resumption of arbitrage between comex future and the TOCOM. Full Story
Gold rose to over $580 in Asia, fell about $10 in London, dropped to under $570 in morning New York trade, and then rebounded to over $576, but it soon fell back off and hovered near its lows for the rest of trade to cut its gains from Monday and close 10 cents under its closing price of last Friday. Silver rose near $11.40 in Asia before it fell off in London and remained near its lows just above $11.00 for most of trade in New York, but it still ended 4 cents higher from last Friday’s close. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 10 October, 2006
December copper futures dropped to test support at 320 last week and then reversed upward (see chart below), thus prolonging the consolidation that began in May. The copper chart doesn't look particularly bullish and the next drop to 320 will probably be the one that's followed by a breakdown, but until the breakdown happens there will remain a significant chance that copper will surprise the market by breaking-out to the upside. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 10 October, 2006
Seismographs and satellite cameras may have registered the force of Sunday’s nuclear explosion in North Korea, but it barely caused a ripple on the world’s stock exchanges. U.S. shares were narrowly mixed, while Asian stocks barely budged. South Korea’s Kospi index suffered the biggest loss of all, but it was only 2.4%. Perhaps the further a bourse from Seoul’s ground zero, the less affected it was by the news? Meanwhile, gold, once considered a sensitive indicator of global jitters, was down a little more than $2 on the day. Full Story
A negative indicator was given with the downside crossover of the 9 and 18 bar moving average. Stochastics trending lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move lower especially if support levels are taken out. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The next downside objective is now at 573.3. The next area of resistance is around 586.7 and 589.0, while 1st support hits today at 578.9 and below there at 573.3. Full Story
Gold steadily rose in Asia and traded nearly $10 higher before it fell off in London and traded slightly lower at one point in late morning New York trade, but it then rallied into the close and ended over 1% higher on the day. Silver rose to find nearly 40 cent gains in early New York trade before it sold off a bit in late morning trade, but it also rebounded into the close and ended with a gain of nearly 2%. Full Story
By: Gary Dorsch, Editor – Global Money Trends Magazine - 9 October, 2006
Compared to the tens of trillions of dollars invested in global bonds and stocks, it’s still the $80 billion invested in commodity funds that is getting most of the attention these days. The direction of commodity markets, particularly for crude oil, copper, and gold is setting inflation expectations in the global bond markets, and clueing central bankers for their next moves on interest rates. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster – Global Watch - 9 October, 2006
The importance of these shifts cannot be over-emphasized, because they are changing the ‘Balance of Power’ in the world significantly and shaping the global economy and will deeply affect the state of the global monetary system. So far the $ has managed to hold onto the reins of power in the world monetary system, despite the catastrophic, persistent and unhealthy, Trade deficit of the United States, about which the States is doing absolutely nothing, which has and will be good for gold, but not for the U.S. Should this state of affairs persist continuously, there is no doubt that the $ will face an enormous crisis and in turn create one for the global monetary system. Full Story
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. The upside daily closing price reversal gives the market a bullish tilt. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The next downside target is 560.3. The next area of resistance is around 583.7 and 587.9, while 1st support hits today at 569.9 and below there at 560.3. Full Story
Gold, silver as well as crude oil rose in Asian trading after Opec decided to cut crude oil production and US prepares a draft on sanctions on Iran to be discussed with the European Union. Full Story
So much for my prediction here yesterday that bulls would celebrate the release of payroll figures on Friday no matter how many new jobs were alleged to have been added to the U.S. economy. As it happened, the number fell well shy of estimates – 51,000 new non-farm jobs versus an expected 125,000. Ordinarily we might have expected such a big shortfall to send stocks soaring, since weak employment figures tend to make the usual bunch of idiots salivate over the prospect of more Fed easing. Full Story
There is a high probability that the 5 month correction in the gold price has ended. Often there is a relationship between the lengths of the A and C waves of a correction, sometimes C equals A and at other times C is only 61.8% of A.
At the low prices on both Comex and the London PM fixings last Friday (6 October), the C wave of the correction was almost precisely 61.8% of the A wave. Equally important, the minor waves in wave C have completed a full Elliott Wave sequence. Full Story
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor - 8 October, 2006
This was a simple exercise but one that took quite a bit of time and effort to accomplish. We adjusted the price of the Dow from Oct 1999 on a quarterly basis to reflect dollar strength or weakness. In other words the Dow was re priced on the basis of where the dollar was trading in each one of those quarterly periods. As the saying goes “a picture is worth a thousand words” and so that’s exactly where we are going to start begin this analysis. Full Story
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