By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 14 April, 2006
Last week I wrote an essay on gold stock valuations, which are nothing short of extreme today. Commodities investors need to be aware that the major gold stock indexes are riddled with gold companies losing money even at today’s prices. And the major gold miners actually earning profits are trading near 75x P/Es on average. While this certainly makes gold stocks risky at these valuations, it also creates opportunities. As I explained in my conclusion last week, the lower the profits of a commodities producer the faster they will multiply as commodities prices continue to rise. Gold stocks’ low profits grant them enormous future profits leverage. Full Story
Slamming silver now will simply delay the day of reckoning - just as another hurricane will wreak havoc on our energy supplies again - more silver will not be brought into the supply chain. Mining operating expenses will not be counterbalanced by a predictable and rising price for their gold or silver. They'll know that with each bull cycle move the banking cartel is there ready to knock it back down. How does a miner work his plan with a regulatory environment like this? We are being forced to live and cope with perpetual crises not of our own making. Full Story
If you think your silver (and gold and copper) stocks and physical holdings of same are safe because you don't play the paper futures and options markets, listen up! This year, 2006, that gong has been rung five times in a concerted effort to sound the death knell for silver's spectacular rise. So far agents of the banking cartel, the COMEX, CBOT, and NYMEX, have been unable to halt its rise. They did it with natural gas bringing it down from $15 to $6.50, and they can and will do it to silver, gold, and any other commodity that threatens their fiat monetary system. Full Story
I had flagged a hidden-pivot support at 117^19 as a potentially important turning point for the June 30-Year Treasury Bond futures, but sellers demolished it on Thursday, telegraphing a strong likelihood of still higher yields in the weeks and perhaps months ahead. The June CBOT contract had already traded as low as 117^17, slightly beneath the advertised pivot, but the two-tick overshoot was not sufficient to seem threatening at the time. Full Story
April 14, 2006 —The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. today announced margin changes for its silver and copper futures contracts, effective at the close of business on Thursday. Full Story
Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The next upside objective is 606.8. The next area of resistance is around 604.1 and 606.8, while 1st support hits today at 598.5 and below there at 595.7. Full Story
Gold dropped a couple dollars in after hours Access trade late yesterday before it climbed higher to about $599 in Asia, but it then fell back near unchanged by the London open which took it back higher on the day. Gold climbed back up near $600 by late morning New York trade before it fell back off into the close, but it still ended with a decent gain to get within 10 cents of its 25 year closing high set on Monday. Silver followed a very similar rollercoaster ride and ended at a new 22 and ½ year closing high. Full Story
The market rallied to a new contract high. Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The daily closing price reversal down is a negative indicator for prices. The market's close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The near-term upside target is at 608.8. The next area of resistance is around 603.6 and 608.8, while 1st support hits today at 595.2 and below there at 591.9. Full Story
Gold rose to new 25 year highs in Asia up above $603 an ounce, but it then steadily fell off throughout most of trade in London and New York. A brief spike brought gold back above $600 in late morning New York trade, but it then fell back off and ended near its lows with a relatively small loss to fall from 25 year highs. Silver climbed to over $13 in Asia before it also fell off in London and New York, but it still ended with a 1.37% gain to a new 22 and ½ year high. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 11 April, 2006
As it becomes clearer that the $ hegemony is going too far, as record after record U.S. Trade Deficits are published, most nations and wealthy individuals are seeking to diversify away from the $. It is clear that despite any present or future exchange rate management [and the Fed has just prepared itself to interfere on the foreign exchanges of the world] and the reality that oil is priced in the $ the exchange rate value of the $ is suspect and likely to fall, eventually. Full Story
The market rallied to a new contract high. Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. With the close over the 1st swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately positive position. The near-term upside objective is at 606.8. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 604.8 and 606.8, while 1st support hits today at 598.8 and below there at 594.7. Full Story
Gold rose about $5 in Asia and rose another $5 to about $598 in London before it fell back near $592 in late morning New York trade, but it then rallied into the close and ended back near its overnight highs with a 1.63% gain at a new 25 year high. Silver jumped about 30 cents higher in Asia and rose near $12.50 in London before it fell back near $12.30 in late morning New York trade, but it also rallied into the close and ended near its overnight highs with a 3.24% gain at a new 22 and ½ year high. Both metals are also trading nicely higher in after hours access trade. Gold is testing $600 and silver is over 20 cents higher from the close at the time of writing. Full Story
Having broken out upside from its 3-month long trading range, which was not expected in the last update, gold is now theoretically in position to continue to advance, and may end the current intermediate uptrend by staging a vertical blowoff move. However, the recent advance looks insipid when compared to silver - gold is still only about $15 above the high attained early in February, and in the event of a downturn it is unlikely to find much support in the January - March trading range, because it has not risen sufficiently far away from it. Full Story
Silver has put in an excellent performance over the past few weeks, and the question naturally arises as to how much longer the current near-vertical uptrend can continue. Although cautious in the last update, it was stated that "Although the current intermediate uptrend is definitely getting “long in the tooth", there is scope for further upside before it has run its course, and it may end with a spectacular vertical blow off move that takes it to a short and intermediate-term overbought extreme.” - and that is what we have seen/are seeing. Full Story
By: Joe Ferrazzano, Trade The Cycles - 10 April, 2006
NEM, HUI, and the XAU's monthly upcycle (since 3-10-06) Wave 4 short term downcycle finally appears to have begun on Thursday 4-6 (see 1 year charts). NEM, HUI, and the XAU hit 2% follow through Wave 5 minor intermediate term cycle buy signals on Tuesday 3-14 (see HUI 1 year chart dated 3-17), which indicates that the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle and a monthly upcycle began on Friday 3-10-06. HUI is probably headed for 400-450+ in Wave 5. Full Story
By: David Chapman, Union Securities - 10 April, 2006
As goes General Motors, so goes the Nation. This was a popular saying back when I was lot younger. Not so today. Some 30 years ago GM held 60% of the North American auto market and along with Ford and Chrysler they totally dominated the market. Well the foreign competitors came into the market and while back then they were dismissed as being unworthy today it is they who dominate the market. GM has fallen to roughly 25% of the North American market and that share is falling. Full Story
It’s over 6 months since I wrote my last public article on silver and we are up more than $4 since then. Many things have changed in the silver market the past few months, but one remains more or less the same: the rather large COMEX commercial short position. Will this move in silver break the commercials backs and force them to liquidate a more significant part of the paper losses that run in the hundreds of millions? Will we see a massive commercial short covering rally? Or will the commercials be able to trigger yet another sell off in silver and cover their shorts at (much) lower levels? Full Story
Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The close below the 2nd swing support number puts the market on the defensive. The near-term upside target is at 603.3. The next area of resistance is around 597.6 and 603.3, while 1st support hits today at 587.8 and below there at 583.8. Full Story
Gold traded about $2-$3 higher in Asia and London, but it then began to fall off in late London and early New York trade and remained near its lows into the close to fall from 25 year highs. Silver traded about 10-15 cents higher in Asia before it also fell off to find losses in late London and early New York trade, but it was able to rebound into the close and end at a new 22 year high. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 9 April, 2006
2005 saw the transition of the gold market from a metal market through to a market behaving as a currency. 2006 will see it evolve further and alone reflect the state of the monetary world. As a Long-term Thermometer, what happens to global confidence and ability of the major structures of the monetary world to measure true financial values, affects Gold. Not only the U.S. $ will come to center stage, but the paper currency world will, itself be questioned! In this section we discuss present features of the global economy that will affect the gold price as well as different global gold markets. Full Story
In the referenced editorial, I boldly claimed that the HUI would reach 425 by April 20, 2006 - with associated caveats...after all, the markets are simply a study in probability. With ten trading days remaining until this target, I thought it was time to revisit the analysis and see where we stood. I fine-tuned the graphs based on both new data and a more accurate drawing of the trend lines. Full Story
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