By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 14 July, 2006
Since the spectacular interim tops in the precious and base metals back in early May, investors and speculators have been anxiously trying to divine just how long the metals ought to correct after the mightiest uplegs of their bull markets. How deep is deep enough and how long is long enough for a major correction? Full Story
"The more things change, the more they stay the same." That oft-repeated bromide contains more truth than most would care to admit. This statement can be applied to our troubled times as every day we are greeted with the same lurid tales of death and destruction overseas. Not a day goes by without news of several bombings and other acts of violence happening throughout the world, especially in the Middle East region. Full Story
Rising stochastics at overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The near-term upside target is at 662.9. The market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70. The next area of resistance is around 659.4 and 662.9, while 1st support hits today at 649.4 and below there at 643.0. Full Story
Gold and silver zoom due to clashes between Lebanon and Israel, Iran nuclear issue has once again started picking up. Now the double whammy in the form of crude oil supply disruptions in Nigeria. Full Story
Gold fell to about $645 in early Asian trade, rose back near $650 by the open of trade in London, and remained near $650 for most of trade in London before it fell back near $645 in late morning New York trade, but it then rallied into the close to end 0.46% higher on the day. Silver rose near $11.70 in late Asian/early London trade, but it then fell off throughout most of trade in London and New York before it rallied a bit at the close, but it still ended 0.61% lower on the day. At the time of writing, both metals are trading over 1% higher from their close in after hours Access trade. Full Story
I’m buried monitoring the energy markets … scrutinizing them virtually 24/7 … checking every piece of news I can get my hands on. I also have three oil charts on my trading screen: A monthly chart, a daily chart, and a 60-minute chart to check the very short-term moves. That’s because there’s a lot going on in energy. There’s Iran … Iraq … North Korea. Plus, here in the U.S., second-quarter earnings for oil and gas companies are now starting to stream out. I think they’re going to smash all previous records. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - 13 July, 2006
The big feature of the gold market this year has been the rise in investment demand this year. But what was Investor demand for gold previously and what is it now? There has been a dramatic metamorphosis in the types that now invest in gold, but also the depth and breadth of the market has increased exponentially. Full Story
There is no bond conundrum. The ample credit supply from Asia on the finance side, and injurious Asian job outsourcing on the tangible side, these have combined to render the US Treasury Yield Curve (TYC) as flat as a buttermilk pancake. Wages have therefore failed to participate in the recovery, with little wonder why. Actual job growth occurs in Asia, while Birth-Death job statistics enter the ledger in the USEconomy. If not for the B-D additions to the job count, the official job growth would have been negative in both May and June. Creeping poverty outside of home equity is the stark painful reality which confirms the flat TYC. Full Story
Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The market setup is supportive for early gains with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The near-term upside target is at 664.5. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 658.1 and 664.5, while 1st support hits today at 644.3 and below there at 636.8. Full Story
Gold remained near unchanged in Asia, gained about $5 in London, and then added around $10 more in late morning New York trade to over $655 at one point, but it then sold off markedly in early afternoon trade to under $645 before it rebounded into the close and ended back near $650. Silver rose to over $11.80 in late morning New York trade before it sold off to under $11.40 in early afternoon trade, but it also rebounded into the close and ended slightly higher on the day. Full Story
We have all witnessed the great rally of gold in the past few months, reaching beyond $700, and then just as quickly, fell to $560 within days, and now we have rebounded, reclaiming 50% of the plunge. Where to from here? Full Story
Yesterday, I gave a potential reason why the dollar might be due for a rally in the coming weeks and months. That reason had to do with increasing international uncertainty that could cause a migration of assets out of speculative markets and into the global reserve currency, which at present remains the US Dollar. Yesterday's example was just one potential scenario. I received many comments on the article, (and I welcome more), and was somewhat surprised to find that many readers out there share the same opinion. Full Story
By: Roland Watson, New Era Investor - 12 July, 2006
When both base and precious metals took a tumble in May, skeptics of the whole bull market felt confirmed in their view that a lot of the price action was purely down to speculators in the futures and options markets driving the price beyond rational measure. As an example, copper hit a high of $3.90 per pound to then drops 26% but is now 8% off that high. Likewise, gold dropped 26% and is now 13% off that high. Good old volatile silver was down 38% and is now 13% off that May high as well. Full Story
One thing I’ve always promised my gold-bug subscribers is that I would avoid serving up hope by the dollop whenever gold was in the doldrums, as it surely is now. My guiding principle is that subscribers will be better served by rigidly objective technical analysis, even when the charts have little to say, than by forecasts buttressed by constant cheerleading. As you know, my long-term outlook for gold is extremely bullish – as how could it not be, given that the world is awash in bogus money that literally is worth no more than the paper it is printed on. But as we keep seeing over and over, that simple fact is not enough to drive gold quotes endlessly higher, nor even to temper investors’ craving for paper assets in the meantime. Full Story
The cross over and close above the 60-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend has turned up. Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. If yesterday's gap higher on the day session chart holds, additional buying could develop this session. The market's close above the 2nd swing resistance number is a bullish indication. The next upside target is 652.5. The next area of resistance is around 649.1 and 652.5, while 1st support hits today at 637.1 and below there at 628.4. Full Story
Gold gained about $5 in Asia and added about another $5 in London before it furthered its gains in late New York trade and closed near its high with a gain of 2.81%. Silver followed a similar pattern and added 4.26%. Both metals are also trading slightly higher in after hours trade at the time of writing. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 11 July, 2006
A question we occasionally get asked is: how can we be bullish on the US dollar when the dollar's fundamentals are so bearish? The answer is that the dollar's fundamentals -- at least, the fundamentals that matter the most as far as intermediate-term currency trends are concerned -- are bullish, not bearish. Full Story
Before I get onto the main topic, let's take a look at today's (July 10) market activity. Yesterday I suggested that commodity prices may have topped, and invited reader's opinions. Today, the prices the commodities whose charts I featured yesterday continued to fall (with the exception of copper): Gold (down 9), crude oil, sugar and the CRB commodity index. Meanwhile, the dollar continued with its fledgling, choppy rally, today with an impressive jump of over half a point. The big news about the Dow was not that it closed up 13 points, but that it was up over 80 points early in the session but could not hold the gains. Full Story
Old-timers (yes, I’m one) will know the title of this article is a play on the famous headline, 30 years ago, in the NY Daily News, which angrily described President Ford’s refusal to offer aid to New York City during a financial crisis. ("Ford To City: Drop Dead") It has been said that the headline contributed to Ford being unable to carry New York in the subsequent election won by Jimmy Carter. The author of the headline, William Brink, passed away last year at age 89, but his five words will live on. Full Story
The close under the 40-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend could be turning down. Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. The market setup is somewhat negative with the close under the 1st swing support. The next upside objective is 634.1. The next area of resistance is around 630.1 and 634.1, while 1st support hits today at 622.1 and below there at 618.0. Full Story
Expectations that bank of Japan will raise interest rates and indication of a solution to Iranian issue has resulted in gold and silver trading with a softer bias. Full Story
Gold traded slightly lower in Asia before dropping further in London to fall as low as $619.90 in early New York trade, but it did rebound a bit into the close to cut its losses by the end of trade. Silver fell under $11 in London before also rebounding in New York trade, but it still ended with a loss of 3.16%. Full Story
We are into the wave III of the long term bull run and traditionally this is the longest and strongest of the market as it is where the fundamentals start to agree with the bullish technicals that have been in force for so long. Did you notice that when the gold price dived down to $550 all the sudden fair weather bulls were suddenly silenced. Once the gold price moves back above $650 expect to see a return to massive bullish predictions. Full Story
Although the last Gold Market update was bullish, gold has actually exceeded our expectations, by rising smartly from the base area that formed following the plunge, and now many market players are understandably preoccupied with trying to answer the question “What next?” Full Story
The last Silver Market update was bullish, but silver has performed more strongly than expected in the intervening period, and like gold, is now vulnerable to a short-term reaction, having risen into an area of strong resistance rather quickly. Full Story
Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The near-term upside target is at 644.6. The next area of resistance is around 639.8 and 644.6, while 1st support hits today at 629.8 and below there at 624.7. Full Story
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