By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Research - 15 November, 2019
The bottom line is gold majors generally did report outstanding results in Q3 on much-higher prevailing gold prices. Revenues and operating-cash-flow generation soared, but earnings were distorted by many large one-off items. Overall the major gold miners’ implied profitability based on the average gold price and their average all-in sustaining costs blasted higher, which portends far better fundamentals going forward.
But GDX continues to be weighed down by the largest gold miners, which are still seeing rapid production declines even after their insanely-expensive mega-mergers. That leaves smaller mid-tier gold miners with superior fundamentals far more attractive for future upside potential. As gold’s breaking-out secular bull continues powering higher on balance in coming years, the mid-tiers will enjoy the lion’s share of the gains. Full Story
By: Avi Gilburt, Elliott Wave Trader - 15 November, 2019
When the GLD dropped down off the October 25th high in a 5-wave structure, this provided us with the warning that a deeper c-wave can take hold. In fact, as we began the rally off that 5-wave decline, I began noting in our trading room that I was going to use GLD puts as a hedge to my overall metals positions, and would stop out should the market be able to break out over 143. And, as I also noted at the time, my target was down in the 133-135 region. Full Story
In his remarks, Powell was upbeat about the economic outlook, seeing continued moderate growth, low inflation. Powell leaned a bit dovish, as he stressed there are “notable risks” facing the economy from the sluggish global economy to “trade developments.” He also highlighted a concern with low inflation expectations. Our view: Just trade in the technical. Incoming US economic data releases will be the key. Full Story
With the expected price pullback underway, what can we expect for the remainder of the month and into year-end? Will the price action continue to resemble 2010, or will it play out more like 2016 instead?
As we've discussed each of the past two weeks, the current selloff/pullback in COMEX gold and silver is as unsurprising as it was unavoidable. The COMEX market-making Banks have driven total gold open interest to new all-time highs above 700,000 contracts, and with the vast majority of these contracts being found in the current front-month of Dec19, a price drop driven by Speculator liquidation was almost inevitable. And here we are. Full Story
By: Michael J. Kosares, USA Gold - 13 November, 2019
Likewise in Argentina, Venezuela, Zimbabwe and Vietnam, physical gold was a safe haven and financial insurance for those that had the foresight to held it. Gold fulfilled its role of saving for those who had held it, a role that fiat currencies utterly failed in. Gold also played the role of medium of exchange in all of these situations, when trust in paper currencies had died.
The causes may differ – hyperinflation, death of paper currencies, economic mismanagement, capital controls, wars – but the outcome is always the same. People and economies instinctively turn to the ultimate asset gold as a safe harbour in times of crisis and emergency. Because only gold persists as a store of value and is trusted as a medium of exchange. Gold allows choices that are not available to those who do not hold gold. In crises, only gold provides economic freedom and liberty. Full Story
As you can see during the last two SPX bear markets GSR & USD rose together, but during the post-2011 period they have mostly risen together along with SPX. Now that’s indicator dysfunction!
Ah, but the ‘inflation trades’ of many global markets, commodities and resources suffered, as would be expected. Given that the Trump administration is considered ‘reflationary’ and anti-USD, we can entertain the prospect that the US stock market might not avoid a similar fate to the global macro if the 2 riders ride again. For now we are in evaluation mode. But ain’t it interesting, in a grim way? Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 13 November, 2019
Subscribers who used Hidden Pivot targets from Rick's Picks to trade against gold's steep fall have done well bottom-fishing this week. Here's how they did it -- and judge for yourself whether you could have done these trades yourself.
By: Avi Gilburt, Elliott Wave Trader - 12 November, 2019
But, before I am willing to trade that next rally aggressively, I am going to wait for the market to provide us with a clear 5-wave structure off a low I expect to be struck over the coming week or two. Once that 5-wave structure completes, I will be preparing an aggressive trade posture for the next larger degree rally phase I expect.
In the meantime, I am looking for a local bottom to be struck in our gold price forecast over the coming week or two, and followed by a 5-wave rally off that low. That will then put us on warning to prepare for the next major rally phase over the coming months. Full Story
Below is a weekly line chart for GLD which shows you why I’m so concerned about the PM complex right now. As you can see this weekly line chart shows a triple top with the breakout in progress. My biggest concern is that we could see some reverse symmetry to the downside as shown by the blue arrows. Many times how a stock goes up is how it may come down over that same area especially when the move was strong.
Note the tops at the 2016 high at reversal point #1 and the 2018 top at reversal point #3 in the 2016 triangle. After the initial breakout from the top in 2016 the price action backtested the top trendline which produced the right shoulder of a bigger H&S top and then came the strong impulse move down. Full Story
By: Avi Gilburt, Elliott Wave Trader - 11 November, 2019
However, based upon my stock market analysis, I think that the stock market can be headed into a tough period as we look towards 2020. I still do not view the greater probabilities suggesting that we are on our way to my long-term target for the SPX in the 4000 region before we see more of a stock market correction first.
But, in the meantime, if you are a Democrat and you are truly devoted to voting Trump out of office, it's time to sell your stocks. (smile) Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 11 November, 2019
Although some notable long-term bond bulls are close to throwing in the towel as U.S. Treasury yields continue to climb, the chart suggests the bull market begun nearly 40 years ago still has farther to go. Yields on the long bond settled Friday at 2.41%, up from 1.90% in August, while T-Notes have gone from 1.43% to 1.93% over the same time. The rallies have been impressive if not to say scary, since they have subjected hundreds of trillions of dollars of borrowings to a deflationary turn of the screw. Full Story
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