Recall that blockchain “money” was reviled and repudiated after it fell to $4,000 in less than a year from a $20,000 peak at the end of 2017. Since then, cryptocurrencies have remained under a dark cloud, not only because of the disastrous outcome of the 2017 bubble, but because of security breaches and scandals that ordinarily would doom a less addictive asset class. Now, apparently, all is forgiven or forgotten — not because Fidelity and their ilk want to better serve their customers, but because they sense that speculators, having learned nothing from the first bubble, are hot to trot again. Full Story
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants - 17 May, 2019
US economic data releases are strong to ensure that there will not be any interest rate cuts this year. If jobs growth continue at the current pace in the third quarter then interest rate hike could be there. Full Story
This next ratio chart compares GOLD to the SPX going back 50 years. When the ratio is falling GOLD is in a bear market vs the SPX and vise versa. As you can see the big trends can last a very long time before a reversal is seen. As long as the price action trades below the 200 week sma GOLD is in a bear market vs the SPX.
Below is just a 15 year weekly chart for the GOLD:SPX ratio along with its 200 week sma, which shows just one sell signal for gold vs the SPX in 2013. Earlier this year the ratio made it almost all the way up to the 200 week sma but turned down before breaking out. A breakout above the 200 week sma would be a very bullish development for gold and the PM complex in general. Full Story
Today’s chart shows ponderous supply sitting on the Nasdaq 100. The two smaller peaks to the left were made significant by the size of the decline that followed them. They harbor many investors who undoubtedly are eager to exit now that the broad averages have returned to those record levels. There is a further impediment in the form of the head-and-shoulderish formation at the righthand edge of the chart. Taken together, it’s possible the three peaks could turn back a stampede of short-covering. We just don’t know. Full Story
The on-again, off-again trade deal with China has put some life into the stock market, all of it vicious. It has also invigorated an otherwise moribund discussion concerning weather tariffs are good or bad. Popular wisdom has it that the mere discussion of Smoot-Hawley tariff legislation caused the stock market to gyrate wildly in 1929 and eventually to crash. Pat Buchanan does a good job debunking this myth in a think-piece published on his web site entitled Tariffs: The Taxes That Made America Great. Maybe. But it’s hard to get around the logic of classical economics, which holds that it is always economically beneficial for a nation to buy from the lowest-cost producer, since the savings can be invested to produce things at which the nation excels. Full Story
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants - 15 May, 2019
Cash will be the king now. Low risk traders and investors will prefer to sit on cash rather than invest in uncertain times. Fundamentals will be the key to investing now. Now a days it is very rare to see rallies in any investment dictated by fundamentals. Gold, Indian stocks and even Indonesian stocks have a long term fundamentally strong story. Only risk to the world growth is energy prices becomes a runaway bride. Full Story
The price of gold soared over $13 Monday as flight-to-safety money flowed into the precious metals sector while the stock market went into a downward spiral. I see Monday’s market action as a preview of what’s in store going forward as price discovery once again engulfs the stock market and causes the most extreme stock bubble in U.S. history to deflate.
Despite the fact that it seems to be taking forever for gold and silver to enter into a prolonged move higher, the chart below should offer encouragement... Full Story
Hot, hot, hot. How else to describe Bitcoin and the cryptocurrencies of late. Bitcoin leaped another 10.1% this past week to over $6,000 and is now up almost 67% in 2019. With further gains this weekend, Bitcoin is approaching $7,000. Yet there still appears to be little explanation as to what is driving this. This past week it was reported that hackers stole some 7,000 Bitcoins with a value of $40.7 million (at the time). Could it be that less supply helped push the price of Bitcoin higher? Nonetheless, it is no surprise that we are now seeing all sorts of forecasts that the new crypto bull is here and we are off to $20,000 once again. The market cap of all the cryptos has returned over $200 billion (current $210 billion) with Bitcoin alone at $122.6 billion constituting 58% of the market. We now have 14 cryptos with a market cap of over $1 billion up from 12 a week ago. And finally, there are 2,169 cryptos listed at Coin Market Cap (www.coinmarketcap.com). Still seems like an incredible number of cryptos and they can’t all survive. The uptrend breaks at $6,000 and that could send Bitcoin back down towards $5,000. The RSI is almost constantly over 70 which suggests that Bitcoin is overbought. But in a strong bull these states can stay that way longer than shorts can stay solvent. Given the recent hack, one has to wonder why anyone would get involved in this market. Clearly all of the issues have not yet been resolved, let alone regulatory issues.
Gold continues to work on what we believe is an E wave of a larger ABCDE-type pattern that got underway with the top in July 2016 at $1,377. Since then, gold has been on a roller coaster ride but has failed at all attempts to take out that level. Full Story
China has now bought gold for the fifth straight month. The People’ Bank of China grew gold reserves to 61.1 million ounces in April, marking the biggest boost since 2016. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S, told Bloomberg that “banks buying is the underlying demand story which continues to develop from central banks seeking to de-dollarize their reserves.” Gold imports by India grew to 121 tons last month from 52.8 tons a year earlier, as prices fell and demand grew ahead of the second-biggest gold-buying day in the Hindu calendar. Full Story
Meanwhile, the threat of a major war hasn’t been higher, arguably, since the Archduke of Austria was assassinated in June 2014. “The entire region between the Mediterranean Sea and India is a seething cauldron of threats, counter-threats, plots, conspiracies, economic sanctions and military movements,” notes the Asia Times. “At any moment an incident, misunderstanding or accident could cause the cauldron to boil over into open interstate war.” Full Story
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants - 13 May, 2019
Traders will prefer to be long gold than short gold. I was hoping that sense will prevail in Trump and that a trade deal would be done with China on the weekend. Trump tweets suggest that he has refused to budge and will not budge for the rest of the his term which ends in January 2021. Full Story
By: Chris Waltzek Ph.D., GoldSeek Radio - 12 May, 2019
- Our guest notes a record gold to silver ratio near 88, a clear indication of a potential opportunity of a lifetime. - The discussion includes an article penned by arguably the biggest global silver enthusiast, Hugo Salinas Price. - The AG magnate insists the sharp increase in global CB gold purchases reveals a loss of hegemony in the reserve currency. - The a significant trend could benefit PMs investors through increased PMs demand, lower supply amid peak-gold. - Peak PMs conditions, an expanding global population of at least 7 billion inhabitants, is also a plus. Full Story
That so many things are coming to head is no coincidence. Late-stage historic global Bubble. The rise of insecurity, populism in the U.S., President Trump and the Chinese as a popular (can't lose) political target. The rise of Chinese economic might, financial power, technological prowess, global influence and rapidly expanding military capabilities. The multi-decade global Bubble has caused unprecedented wealth inequality, uncertainty and fragility - within and between nations. And an increasingly disenchanted U.S. middle-class has manifested into a country deeply divided economically, socially and politically - more distrustful of its institutions and seeking scapegoats.
Deal or No Deal, this week had me pondering the next crisis. It will, after all, be the first international market crisis in an era of competing global powers. Do the rivals come together or seek advantage at the other's expense? I grimaced some months back when President Trump began using his Twitter account to troll the struggling Chinese markets and economy. And in this age of the strongman head of state, where will this leave central bankers when things turn dicey? Has the era of putting a select group of like-minded global central bankers in a room and empowering them to orchestrate a strategy to reliquefy the world run its course? Full Story
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