There can be unknown and abrupt price moves in gold, silver, copper and crude oil. One needs to be alert. I am bullish on gold investment demand. Mass unrest will result in more and more people increasing their allocation to gold. Full Story
In light of Trump impeachment and the associated US political drama, if you are going on a vacation for Christmas and New Year, then preferable close very short term trades. Do not use high stop losses as you will be at the mercy of Trump. Trump will not be silent. Trump will fight tooth and nail to gather American masses against his impeachment. Trump’s actions and inaction’s can increase his positive votes among American people BUT the same can be very bad for global economy and global politics. This is a world where billionaires and trillionaires can buy everything. Trump is a part of the global elite club. Metals, energies and the US dollar Index will see sudden knee jerk price moves followed by long periods of consolidation. A bad trade or a bad short term investment, you will be busted. Full Story
Moreover, with the metals currently setting up for what can be a multi-year rally as well (as I discussed in my prior metals articles), this is one commonly held correlation belief that seems to be supported by the underlying charts we track. Full Story
Traders will start taking positions for New Year and Christmas as the week progress. I see more investment interest in stocks than gold and silver for next year. Even I am bullish on Indian stocks for next year. Worst is behind us or whether the so called global rally will be an exit opportunity will depend on fundamentals of each nation. Gold investment demand on or from the second week of January will be the key. Full Story
By: Stewart Thomson, Graceland Updates - 17 December, 2019
The amount of debt in both China and the United States is horrifying and it continues to grow.
Debt growth is worshipped by millions of people who think it is a cure rather than a disease.
The government did stimulate modestly when Trump threw his “tariff tax tantrum”, but rating services like Moody’s and Fitch are concerned about the potential for defaults that could drag the global economy down into a crisis. Full Story
Yellow fever will be there in 2020 also. This year also, gold prices took a few months to rise. Once it started rising, it was unstoppable. Gold prices in Asian nations zoomed partly due to a weaker currencies. Asian people are waiting for sharp corrections in gold so that they can buy more and more physical gold. In 2020, gold price in India, China, UAE and Singapore among other nations will be the key driver of physical gold demand. The West, USA, UK, Eurozone are mainly a paper market for gold. Keep a close watch on local gold prices in various Asian nations. Full Story
Gold has remained resilient this week in the face of many developments that could have rocked the price. Bullion rose after the Federal Reserve signaled it would keep U.S. interest rates on hold, then rose again after jobless claims rose. Gold fell on Thursday after the initial U.S.-China trade deal was announced, but held its own on Friday after weighing the impact of a weaker dollar, reports Bloomberg. Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets, said in an interview that there are “two currents that are pushing and pulling gold at the money” – the trade war breakthrough and a weaker U.S. dollar. Full Story
Lets start with this very long term monthly combo chart which has the CRB index on top with the US dollar in the middle and gold on the bottom. Back in April of 2011 the CRB index topped out while the US dollar bottomed out exactly at the same time with gold topping out 5 months later in September. As you can see there is a mild correlation between the CRB and gold with their 2011 trendline both sloping down while the US dollar is sloping up.
There is an old saying that goes something like this, gold leads commodities at the beginning of a bull market and then when the time is right commodities will begin their bull market following gold higher. If you look at the CRB chart on top and the gold chart on the bottom you can see gold broke out above its 2011 downtrend line in January of this year while the CRB index is significantly below the top rail of its 2011 downtrend line. Has the CRB index finally reached the point where it might start outperforming gold? As the inverse correlation between commodities and the US dollar is fairly good that time might be at hand. Full Story
I am not sure whether global economy is ready for rising energy prices next year. Economic fundamentals are still bearish for most Asian nations. There is just hope that the worst will be behind in 2019 for global economy. We need to remember that there is difference between hope and actuals. The pace of rise of crude oil will be the key to global economy in 2020. Full Story
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