By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Research - 20 September, 2019
The bottom line is Fed actions have really impacted this gold bull, and will continue to do so. This isn’t from the rate hikes or cuts themselves, which are well-telegraphed and universally expected in advance. Markets move based on changes implied in the outlook for the future rate trajectory. That can spawn big buying and selling in gold futures, leading to large and fast gold-price moves following FOMC decisions.
These rate-outlook shifts usually come in Fed officials’ collective forecasts summarized in the dot plots, but are sometimes seen in the Fed chairman’s press conferences. Gold tends to surge if the Fed looks more dovish than expected, and sell off if it comes across as more hawkish. This is due to the reactions from the gold-price-dominating gold-futures speculators. Their positioning also impacts how they react to the FOMC. Full Story
By: Stewart Thomson, Graceland Updates - 20 September, 2019
- What does this mean for gold? Well, the 30basis point cut on excess reserves is bigger than the 25basis point cut on the fed funds rate. That could incentivize banks to loan money to the private sector rather than store it at the Fed.
- Institutional money managers wanted to see a half point cut. That didn’t happen but Jay Powell did talk about potentially restarting QE.
- The bottom line is that current Fed action is mildly inflationary and generally supportive for gold. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 19 September, 2019
The Fed’s so-far $128 billion intervention in the repo market slipped off the Wall Street Journal‘s front page by evening, hardly a concern. Don’t be surprised if, years from now, the squeeze on short-term borrowers that caused this flurry of excitement is cited as an early warning sign of the banking system’s coming collapse. On Tuesday, there simply weren’t enough dollars around to keep short-term loans rolling. This implies that the dollar short-squeeze I first wrote about in Barron’s and the San Francisco Examiner more than two decades ago may have begun. Full Story
“We expect spot gold prices to trade stronger for longer, possibly breaching $2,000 an ounce and posting new cyclical highs at some point in the next year or two,” Citi analyst Aakash Doshi wrote in a note dated September 10, and reported by Bloomberg.
I agree with Citi’s projection. Last week I joined fellow goldwatchers Peter Schiff and Imaru Cassanova on Liz Claman’s Countdown to the Close, and I pointed out that gold is looking more and more attractive as central banks pursue easy money policies. When governments offer you a negative rate of return, that automatically makes gold much more appealing. What’s more, I think this easing cycle has just begun. Full Story
In less than twenty four hours after the attack of crude oil facilities in Iran, Trump and Saudi Arabia come to the conclusion that Iran is behind the attack. Does that not sound Fishy? This just a propaganda war to turn Iran into another Iraq or Libya. Iran may not attacked and captured this year. I expect an attack on Iran either next year or thereafter who so ever becomes the US president in 2020. President’s comes and go but NATO agenda is the same. Debasement of US dollar and global currency markets will only quicken now. The overall pace of rise of gold will only rise. Continue to invest in gold and silver.
The best performing metal this week was palladium, up 4.41 percent. Central banks continue to stock up on gold – led by Russia, the world’s top buyer for seven consecutive years. Russia’s central bank quadrupled its gold holdings in the last decade and has diversified away from U.S. assets. According to Bloomberg, the value of the nation’s gold surged 42 percent in the past year to $109.5 billion due to higher prices. Russia is also a top miner and saw its gold production rise 11 percent in the first half of 2019 from the same period last year to 142.2 tons. China is also growing its gold reserves. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has raised its bullion holdings for a ninth consecutive month, adding 5.91 tons in August, reports Bloomberg. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 16 September, 2019
For a rare change, global markets seem genuinely concerned about the news. A drone attack by Iran over the weekend knocked out more than half of Saudi Arabia’s refining capacity, amounting to roughly five percent of global supply. Fox and other news outlets underplayed the story initially, putting it beneath the latest sex charges against Kavanaugh. But the Saudi story shot up to the top of the page when index futures began to trading Sunday evening and oil prices soared $8 to a high of nearly $63 per barrel. So far, though, traders have gotten it only half-right. Comex gold is up a mere $14 at the moment (see chart above), and S&PS futures are off only 18 points. This suggests that although the threat to the world’s oil supplies is perceived as real, it is not yet considered a full-blown crisis in the trading world. Full Story
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