Sometimes we’re blessed not to possess insider information. Several pointed examples surfaced in the last few days. If we had known, for instance, that Fed Chairman Powell would tell the world on Wednesday that the U.S. economy is holding steady as a rock and that no changes are contemplated in monetary policy, we’d have jumped on call options a day earlier. Lo, the Dow began a 500-point plunge the moment he began to speak, turning our would-be call options into dross. Go figure.
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants - 2 May, 2019
Interest rates outlook was expected to be kept unchanged by the Federal Reserve. Fed also lowered interest rates paid on reserves. Chairman Powell's statement that that inflation risk appears to have been moderated resulted in fall in gold prices. What next for gold: Wider trading range is at $1249.60-$1263.20-$1280-$1297.10. Overall trend is down as long as gold trades below $1291. Gold needs to trade over $1255-$1260 for the rest of May to be in long term bullish zone. Full Story
The fact that this occurred after the stock had pushed above last July’s record high makes the selloff merely corrective rather than impulsive. It was attributable to a dour earnings report which suggested Google is losing ground in advertising to Amazon and Facebook. From the look of the chart, however, it seems predictable that the company will find a way to cope and get back in the race. Another thing to be inferred from the stock’s steep dive is that it was engineered by the same institutional wiseguys who have been buying it all along. Full Story
As we know, Gold and the US Dollar have an inverse relationship. Gold is priced in US Dollars and the drivers of each are similar (from an inverse point of view). Over long-term periods both trend in the same direction but the magnitude of the moves can vary and be quite different.
The standard inverse relationship has not been a perfect one in recent months or years. Full Story
"Investors" could be pardoned for wondering why IPO underwriters for Lyft and Uber have used accounting trickery that smells worse than ten-day-old fish in order to promote the deals. Is bogus too strong a word? Judge for yourself. In their prospectuses, neither firm subtracted promotional incentives and refunds from sales totals, as is customary. This allowed them to grossly overstate revenues and profits. In Lyft’s case, revenues would have been 16% lower than the $2.16 billion reported and Uber’s would have been 12% lower than the $11.27 billion reported. These numbers were aired in a Wall Street Journal op-ed piece Monday by Howard Schilit, co-author of Financial Shenanigans. Full Story
By: Chris Waltzek, GoldSeek Radio - 29 April, 2019
- John Williams of Shadowstats.com returns to the show with provisos on the domestic economy. - Investors are advised to prepare for a recession as soon as the second quarter of 2019. - As soon as September Shadowstats.com analysis indicates Fed policymakers will begin a new rate cut cycle. - When adjusted for Real inflation (10% vs. 3% officially) retail sales are flat to negative and economic output is overstated. - This could put downward pressure on the US dollar and US shares. - Over the past decade, US policymakers have attempted to revive the domestic economy via $14 trillion in QE. - Inflation could send crude oil to new highs as well as the PMs. Full Story
Another week and another record high (close) for the S&P 500, the NASDAQ and the TSX. The markets keep chugging higher. All seems good. No sign of recession as even our recession watch spread widened this past week. Markets are impervious to negative news. No major divergences and indicators remain positive. All is good. Or is it? Full Story
Despite my newfound clarity of mind, I continued to write very bearish think-pieces for Barron’s, the San Francisco Examiner and other publications. Making grim predictions is a habit that has continued to this day. But readers of my Examiner column would not have guessed that the forecasting and trading side of my life was bullish as all get-out, nor that I was predicting an imminent rally of 3200 points in the Dow Average. And now, the benefit to you of my 15-year learning curve is that I am confident in the 3095 target, even allowing for the fact that my merely saying this is probably hubris enough to queer the prediction in some way. Full Story
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants - 29 April, 2019
Gold needs to break and trade over $1290-$1292 zone to attract short covering. Spot silver needs to trade over $15.10 to attract short covering. Crude oil needs to trade over $60.00-$60.60 this week to be in bullish zone. Copper is in neutral zone. Japanese markets are closed this week till 5th May. So the sea calm is there in bullion and currencies. Full Story
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