By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants - 3 April, 2020
A lot of people are worried as to what will happen to gold and silver after the release of today’s US March nonfarm payrolls? Simple Answer: Gold and silver will rise after NFP. Sharp correction before the release of NFP or after the release of NFP should be used to go long. Full Story
There are one of two ways this can go here, retest the lows soon and then followed by a sustained rally. Will depend on how countries implement covid response.Unemployment report on Friday. Market might get nervous into report, but odds are better that we don't undercut prior lows if we even do go down.
I was warning for an end of the quarter volatility as we finish out the first quarter. Can't wait for gold to get out of this pattern. This is where I am concerned..
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants - 1 April, 2020
Reduction or normalization in gap between spot gold and Comex gold June futures is the prime reason for gold price to fall. Delivery uncertainties are over the immediate term. I expect physical gold to be in short supply this quarter. Full Story
The historic action of the precious metals sector over the past few weeks has continued.
The strong recovery in GDX, GDXJ, and Silver has potentially invalidated the technical breakdown that occurred during the crash. It appears to be a failed breakdown.
Furthermore, Gold was looking vulnerable on the weekly, and monthly chart yet was able to slingshot back to $1700/oz. It is currently up $88/oz or 5.6% this month, while the S&P 500 is down 14%. Full Story
Range bound trade in gold and silver will be broken by tomorrow and a new range will be formed. A new month and a new quarter high on economic optimism but low on confidence. Uncertainty on global economy and inability to prevent coronavirus spread has resulted in gold remaining firm and crude oil and industrial metals trading with a softer bias. Spot gold should have broken past $1700. By the second week of April spot gold should break past $1700. Full Story
So is the bear over? Many are proclaiming the bear dead because of this past week’s 20% plus rally. But as we note there are plenty of signs that this could be short lived. We also note that we have started what we believe is a new secular bear. The economic numbers this past week were stunning. The potential unemployment numbers could be staggering. This Friday April 3 the March employment numbers are out and we wouldn’t be surprised at a negative number given this past week’s initial claims and the huge applications for assistance here in Canada as well. A recession? For sure, and many believe we have already started one. But this has the potential of turning into something far worse. Lurking in the background is a mountain of debt and an overheated housing market. We look at that as well.
Gold rallied but there were some negatives spotted and we failed to make new highs. The divergence with silver continues. But in the physical market the demand for coins and bars is soaring and there are shortages. The energy market remains a disaster zone. A barrel of Alberta crude trades for less than a barrel of monkeys. It is that kind of market.
We do look for something cheery but it is difficult to find. Best estimates on the COVID-19 crisis doesn’t see it peaking until sometime later in April at a minimum. This could last months. Something the western world is totally unprepared for. Full Story
The best performing metal this week was palladium, up 37.90 percent, essentially regaining all the losses from the prior two weeks. Platinum and silver also rebounded strongly. Gold headed for its biggest weekly gain since 2008 while platinum and palladium were on track for their biggest weekly increases on record. It was a smashing week for precious metals due to supply concerns over mine shutdowns in top producing South Africa. Palladium surged more than 20 percent on Tuesday, its biggest ever gain, after South Africa announced a 21-day coronavirus lockdown. Dmitry Glushakov, head of metals and mining research at VTC Capital, said the country “accounts for some 70 percent of global platinum mined supply and 35 percent of palladium, with a 21-day lockdown possibly resulting in a 4 percent and 2 percent of 2020 supply reduction respectively.” Full Story
The world suddenly finds itself tipped into the gravest crisis since the 2nd World War, and with respect to the global economy it is actually far worse, because the financial system was teetering on the verge of collapse even before the coronavirus epidemic surfaced as a result of the exponential growth of debt and derivatives – so the virus epidemic and the reaction to it has simply acted as a catalyst to bring the whole house of cards down. Full Story
At some point, you must begin to recognize that markets are driven by market sentiment. And, the parameters that the market is providing to us right now based upon our sentiment analysis suggests that as long as we remain below 2725SPX, we can expect a lower low before the next major bull market move begins. But, the larger degree structures still suggest that the SPX can be heading to the 4000 region in the coming 3 years. I have seen nothing yet to suggest otherwise. Full Story
Rob Goodman of StockPulse interviews Peter Spina on the quickly evolving situation in the gold markets:
"It’s a very unique time and period in history but it’s good to take some action right now and don’t wait. I don’t think this is a time to be waiting for everyone else to take action because when they do you see how supplies get raided very quickly and disappear.” – Peter Spina Full Story
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