By: Adam Hamilton, CPA, Zeal Research - 8 November, 2019
The bottom line is the big US stocks’ just-reported Q3’19 results certainly don’t justify these record-high stock prices. Revenue growth mostly stalled out last quarter, while earnings declined. That happened with the best stock-market levels ever witnessed, and incredibly-extreme Fed easing. Stock prices were stretched so far beyond underlying earnings that elite American companies are trading near bubble valuations.
This is a precarious situation at best, and dangerous at worst. The hyper-easy Fed is running low on stock-market-goosing ammunition, with only 6 rate cuts left between here and zero. Can these lofty, expensive stock markets keep levitating without the Fed? Probably not with corporate fundamentals deteriorating even when everything is awesome. A valuation mean reversion lower, or bear market, is coming. Full Story
Typical gold and silver price movement after Diwali. Gold and silver have always formed short term peak around Diwali. Irrespective of the news, history has repeated itself. I will prefer to use sharp dips to invest for next year. Long term investment is good at current price. Short term investors and very short term traders need to remain on the sidelines. Physical demand and investment demand for gold and silver should rise. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 7 November, 2019
It often seem as though trade-deal news drives the markets, but how could this be so when we all know that China will never, ever change its crooked ways? Not that it matters. If Trump hadn’t started a tariff war, it would have made little difference in the way a bull market now in its eleventh year behaves; stocks would still be trading about where they are. The only difference is that the con-artists who make their living levitating stocks would have found a different story to drive the short-covering rallies that alone are capable of boosting the broad averages past old highs. Full Story
U.S. lawmakers seek to ban federal pension fund from investing in China: This is the real big news. A group of U.S. lawmakers introduced legislation that would block a federal retirement fund from investing in Chinese stocks. Our View: Trade deal will not end the trade war. Buy lots of physical gold and physical silver. Increase gold investment to fifty percent of your contingency fund investment. I hope everyone has a contingency fund. Better to invest the cash of contingency fund in gold as gold is more than cash. Full Story
Over the past 52 weeks through November 6th, the S&P 500 has declined 10.5% when measured in terms of gold – i.e. real money. Money printing at a rate in excess of real wealth output diminishes the marginal value of the currency. Because the price of gold moves inversely with the inherent value of the dollar, the chart above reflects the effect of dollar devaluation on financial assets.
Thus, the real upward movement of the stock market highly deceptive in terms of both the number of stocks in the NYSE participating in move higher and in terms of using real money to measure the price of stocks. Full Story
The yellow metal initially fell after the Fed cut rates for the third time on Wednesday, but then quickly regained those loses despite policy makers hinting they might put further cuts on hold. Bloomberg reports that the Fed looks prepared to stop cuts in order to assess the impact on the economy of their reductions over the past three meetings. Dan Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJ O’Brien & Associates LLC, said “there’s a lot of moving parts now that are creating a theme to be bullish on gold.” Full Story
If what I’m seeing in the charts right now is correct then the Chartology is going to show you what the fundamentals will be like in 6 month or longer down the road. Most fundamentalist have been looking for the stock markets to crash based on their own interpretation of the fundamentals. At some point they will be right, but until then they have missed out on the biggest bull market in history which only comes around once or twice in a lifetime.
At this point in time Chartology is suggesting there will be some good fundamentals that will drive the stock markets higher over the next year or two. Right now investors who look at the fundamentals think that Europe and the emerging markets are on their death bed with no heartbeat, but the Chartology is strongly suggesting something entirely different is taking place.. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 4 November, 2019
What are we to make of Wall Street’s exuberance on Friday over news concerning a U.S. economic expansion that refuses to die? Employers are hiring, consumers are spending and business is humming despite a dramatic economic slowdown in Asia, Europe, South America and elsewhere. Perhaps America really is an economic island, one blessed with unstinting support from a central bank that has finally succeeded in taming the business cycle? If you are too young to remember the last three or four recessions, you might actually believe that things are different this time. Full Story
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