By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 9 August, 2019
After six long years, the precious metals are finally setting up for BIG MOVES higher. Even though the gold price has increased significantly over the past two months, we haven’t seen anything yet. Of course, gold has already enjoyed big moves in other currencies such as the British Pound where it has reached an all-time new high.
However, we have to be a bit more patient for gold to reach a new high in the U.S. Dollar as the Federal Reserve has a monopoly on the world’s printing press. But, it is important to understand that gold has broken through a KEY LEVEL and is giving the green light to the market that a new bull market has begun. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, CPA, Zeal Research - 9 August, 2019
The bottom line is big US stocks’ latest fundamentals from Q2’19’s earnings season were decent. These elite companies enjoyed modest sales and earnings growth. But that masked serious and mounting risks. Investment capital is increasingly concentrating in the beloved mega-cap technology stocks, leaving stock markets overly dependent on their fortunes. Any slowing from them will drag the entire stock markets lower.
More ominously big US stocks’ valuations remain way up near dangerous bubble territory. Their earnings aren’t justifying their lofty stock prices. The resulting downside risks are exacerbated with profits growth really slowing, and threatening to stall out entirely or even shrink in coming quarters. This is a potently-bearish situation, even before any bad news like further escalation in the US-China trade war hits stocks. Full Story
By: Chris Waltzek, GoldSeek Radio - 9 August, 2019
Dr. Leeb is especially fond of the yellow metal, which recently touched a new 6-year record.
The BIS changed its stance on gold, which it now views as compared to cash, boosting demand.
Ironically, gold is the true cash, while fiat remains merely a shell game attempt to procure more gold!
Dr. Leeb finds a floor in the price of gold above $1,300, noting it will adjust, "very, very, very high." In 1971, when the US abandoned the gold standard for good, the inflation genie was unshackled. Full Story
So, as long as the market continues to hold its supports in each consolidation phase we track (which we will continually update to our members), it keeps us on track in the new bull market. Should a support break, and depending on how it breaks, it could still open a bearish door. We will cross that bridge if we come to it. But, that is why risk management and stops are so important. Full Story
Key US economic data releases starts to trickle to today. The current pace of rise gold cannot continue for long. There has to be sharp correction for gold to rise to $1700. Ultimate stop for gold is at $1700 before the end of the quarter. Corrections up to $1450 should be used to invest for the year end. Full Story
Sure, you’ll occasionally hit a winner that doubles your stake. The charts show one such opportunity that occurred this week. The left-hand graph is of the VXX, while the other shows near-term call options with an exercise price of 30. The dramatic selloff of the last few days caused VXX to spike nearly 40%, from 21.5 to 29.5. If you’d seen it coming and bought the options for, say, 0.55 just before takeoff, you could have sold them for as much as 1.60. In actuality, only a handful of contracts traded at that height, and even a demon-genius trader would have done well to exit for around 1.20, doubling his or her money after commissions. Full Story
However, price is now at a very important point, as the area between $1485 and $1525 is extraordinarily important. If price can surge through this level, the stage will be set for an eventual rally back to the old all-time dollar price highs. This would be logical to expect given that gold priced in British pounds, Australian dollars, Canadian dollars, and so many other currencies are already currently trading at all-time highs. Full Story
By: Stewart Thomson, Graceland Updates - 6 August, 2019
- Is China a currency manipulator? For one possible answer to this question, please read the article. My view is almost identical to Kyle’s; China’s government is manipulating its currency… higher!
- Trump’s tariff tax obsession may be somewhat comical, but it is creating substantial weakness in China’s currency. That’s because foreign and domestic investors are moving significant amounts money out of Chinese risk markets and into dollar-denominated safe havens like T-bonds, gold, and the yen. Full Story
In the meantime, as I noted above, I have begun to ring the cash register, and have been reaping the 20% profits we have earned since our entry in November. While I still have positions left which I will sell in the 137.50-138.50 region, or on a strong break of 134, I intend to be divesting myself of the rest of my TLT positions over the coming several weeks, at least until I see how the market handles a pullback to the 129-131 region.
Who knows . . . maybe we will see all those who have been bearish bonds, and have missed this 20% rally, begin to turn bullish up here. In fact, I have seen things like this happen more times than I can even count. But, as one of my more astute members have noted, “the goal of Elliott Wave analysis is to analyze market sentiment and not to participate in it.” For now, I think we are getting a bit too frothy for my risk appetite. Full Story
USA has declared China a “currency manipulator”. China’s offshore yuan fell to an all-time low. The currency wars has just started. Gold will continue to rise. Trend for gold and silver is bullish. Industrial metals can fall more if currency wars increase slowdown.
Gold and crypto currencies are the best hedge against a slowdown. The US dollar is losing its value as the best hedge against a slowdown. Silver will catch sooner than later. Full Story
The charts we will look at in this update suggest that this is a perfect shorting setup that you see “once in a blue moon”. On the 3-year chart for the S&P500 index we can see that it has essentially been trending higher all year, but has now arrived at an important double target – at the upper boundary of its giant broadening pattern, which may also be called a bullhorn or megaphone and is normally bearish in purport, and also at the top of a Dome pattern. It is no coincidence that it has arrived at these targets at exactly the time of a Fed statement (today) and since it has risen ahead of this meeting this should be a classic “sell on the news” event, especially if the Fed only does a 25 bps reduction in rates, as the market will have discounted it. If they do the “full Monty”, a 50 bps cut, while it may superficially be viewed as music to the markets’ ears, then the market may construe it as the Fed seeing something bad coming down the pike, making it feel moved to use up all its ammo. So this is probably going to be a lose – lose outcome for the markets. Full Story
As the gold price continues to heat up, so too does M&A activity among gold miners. Resolute Mining Ltd. agreed to buy Toro Gold Ltd. for $274 million in cash and stock. Toro is private and operates its flagship asset in eastern Senegal. Citigroup is maintaining its third quarter average price forecast for the yellow metal at $1,425 per ounce.
Silver continues to pull in speculation from investors. The combined volume of calls and puts for silver soared to 218,000 contracts in July – the highest since November 2010. Bloomberg’s Justina Vasquez writes that silver is getting a boost, just like gold is, due to the prospect of central banks easing monetary policy. Investors are betting that silver will catch up to gold in terms of price gains. Full Story
Lets start with the most important commodity on the planet oil. Back in 2007 the WTIC formed an unassuming H&S bottom which ended up being the spark to launch oil on its parabolic run to 147 in just under a year. That parabolic move ended when the WTIC formed a large H&S top which is hard to see on this long term daily chart. The price objective was down to 33.61 which was hit dead on the money.
After that low was established in early 2009 oil began a countertrend rally which would last for a couple of years. The WTIC then began to form one of those very large and drawn out topping patterns that would take 5 years to complete. Similar to the 6 year H&S consolidation pattern that we’ve been following on gold.. Full Story
The Fed gave us exactly what the market expected in a .25% rate cut, and even gave us a “gift” with the early cessation of Quantitative Tightening. Normally, most would view this as a bullish catalyst. However, with market sentiment topping out in a bullish extreme, market participants interpreted the Fed action as bearish (despite its positive substance), and the market sold off this past week.
Based upon my analysis, we now have a top in place, as I have been warning to expect. The question is what will that top represent? Full Story
By: Chris Waltzek Ph.D., GoldSeek Radio - 5 August, 2019
- Our guest notes the Fed's decision to slash rates this week and the implications for PMs aficionados. - The domestic total debt outstanding concerns our guest, especially the Fed's balance sheet, still $3 trillion higher than before the Great Recession. - Today, the $800 billion seemed enormous, now it's more than 4 times higher, a perpetual debt that can never be repaid according to our guest. - Economic policymakers will keep the house-of-cards intact as the entire global currency system is interconnected. - The inevitable fiat death spiral leaves merely a few safe havens, such as the PMs, fairly valued real estate and cryptocurrencies. Full Story
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