By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Research - 13 September, 2019
The bottom line is gold stalled and reversed hard because speculators’ leveraged gold-futures bets had grown too excessively bullish. Their longs were way up just under all-time-record highs, and their shorts were way down just over bull-market lows. These gold-dominating traders were effectively all-in longs and all-out shorts, leaving them little room to keep buying but vast room to sell on the right catalyst hitting.
Such gold-futures-selling overhangs resulting from specs waxing too bullish need to be normalized before gold bulls can resume. That only happens through heavy selling, both jettisoning exaggerated longs and ramping up meager shorts. This forces gold into major corrections, which are both necessary and healthy between major bull-market uplegs. They lead to the best buying opportunities seen within ongoing bulls. Full Story
Traders and investors in India are very bullish on gold and silver today. They expect gold and silver to zoom after the European central bank meeting. There will be good demand in futures as well as physical market in India today. Monetary easing by way of interest rate cut and new bond issuances is expected by the ECB today. Outlook by the ECB will be the key. Eurozone economy at the moment is in shambles. I am not sure whether only monetary measures can contribute to growth, jobs hiring and higher retail demand. Do not expect overnight results. But remember all the extreme forms of pessimism has been factored in by the traders. Full Story
By: Michael Kosares, USA Gold - 11 September, 2019
That about sums it up. The dollar at the moment is something of a Humpty Dumpty in the global monetary system – sitting on his wall oblivious and seemingly immune to all that goes on around him. Whether or not there will someday be a Great Fall remains to be seen, but increasingly, as Carney’s speech illustrates, forces are lining up against it.
By: Avi Gilburt, Elliott Wave Trader - 11 September, 2019
As the market now approaches our target pullback region, I am going to be alert for a potential set up that will tell me we are bottoming into our target. Moreover, if we can develop an impulsive structure off this support region, then I will be targeting the 151+ region next before a much larger degree top is struck. And, should we break down below this support before we see that bottoming structure develop, then the potential increases that a major top has been struck in bonds. I am going to remain flexible at this time, and will listen to the messages presented to us by Mr. Market. Full Story
By: Stewart Thomson, Graceland Updates - 11 September, 2019
- The rise of China and India is not going away. The decline of the West is not going away. These forces are destabilizing the dollar and ushering in a bull era for gold, silver, and associated miners.
- It’s no longer as important to avoid price reactions as it is to stay invested and buy breakouts. As stagflation grows, this gold market will become very similar to the 1970s market… on a much bigger scale! Full Story
While I have no doubt there is an intervention in the precious metals markets, we must remember that the Fed and central banks are manipulating the ENTIRE MARKET with money printing, bond purchases, debt issuance, and zero (or negative) interest rates. However, the current price of gold and silver, even with the supposed market rigging, are still priced higher than their overall average production cost.
Unfortunately, the fact that the prices of most goods and services are based on their cost of production tends to be overlooked by the majority of the analyst community… whether they are from the mainstream or alternative media. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 10 September, 2019
Interest rates on the Ten-Year Note still have a long way to fall if they are going to achieve the 0.73% target shown in the chart (see inset). Although it is mildly bullish that they have bounced from well above the 1.30% Hidden Pivot target given here earlier, the rally would have to hit 2.18% to turn the weekly chart bullish. For now, though, we’ll need to respect the uptrend because it has in fact turned the daily chart bullish via an impulse leg surpassing two prior peaks recorded last month. If without pausing for breath it exceeds a third at 1.79% that occurred a month ago, that would imply the upward skew in rates is about to get legs, presumably with a move to at least 2%. We’ll spectate for now, but our goal is to get short when it looks like the bounce is about to sputter out.
The current fall in gold and silver is just a correction and not a short term bearish trend. Please remember that there is a difference between correction and a bearish trend. Bearish trend will be there only if gold trades below $1487 after the FOMC on 19th September. Sharp correction till the FOMC should be used to invest or go long in futures with higher trailing stop loss. Please do not trade for intraday or for a few days without any trailing stop loss till 19th September USA open. There can be very big price moves till 19th September.
Despite the rather horrid setbacks in the precious metals -- and their associated equities these last few days, the fact that Alan Greenspan, still a gold standard-bearer on the inside, would come out and say what he did on Friday, is the final straw in the wind that makes me content with my "all in" position in the precious metals.
And in the face of what's coming down the pipe in the next six months, it's a certainty that the price management scheme that currently exists in the all four precious metals will come to an abrupt end sometime in the next six months.
Ted is of the opinion -- and I'm certainly not disagreeing with him this time, that this engineered price decline will be the last one before we blast higher, so I'm more than prepared to bear the pain in the short term.
Because, as the ancient Persian adage goes..."This too, shall pass." Full Story
Although a major Precious Metals sector bullmarket has certainly started, various fundamental and technical factors came together last week to suggest that a significant correction to the recent strong runup has now started. The main fundamental development was the announcement that there will be a Trade War summit between China and the US early next month, with hopes being expressed that this may lead to compromise or some kind of truce. Whilst the chances of improvement may be slim, the market has got what it wants for now which is hope, and this hope should continue at least until this meeting, which provides the excuse for the markets to go “risk on” until then, which is why the stockmarket broke higher last week, delaying but not eliminating our crash scenario. Full Story
If you hear one peep out of the gold community about a precious metals “take down”, “attack” or any other such aggressive or war-like language you will then be hearing some old fashioned and promotional gold bug orthodoxy. Fortunately, a casual look around the Bug-o-Sphere does not yield too many obvious conspiracy theorists or importantly, cheerleaders.
Indeed, it seems that all too many bugs expected this correction in gold, silver and the miners. That is a good thing because when the real top comes these ladies are going to be out front and greed will be running rampant (quite possibly against a negative fundamental or valuation backdrop as in 2008). Full Story
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